Watches expert Robin Swithinbank weighs in twice a month with intelligence and insight on the age-old industry as it navigates tensions between reinvention and tradition.
A blizzard of results at the end of January and now we know: Richemont’s watchmakers are up, LVMH’s are flat and Swatch Group’s are down. And the industry as a whole? Swiss watch exports data showed an unexpected December spike, which arrested four consecutive months of sharp decline, bringing the annual figure to down 1.7 percent, not as bad as had been feared.
What does all that mean? A careful read shows the strongest brands pulling ahead of the pack, leaving rivals further behind. Laggards will have to double down on their efforts to catch up — all the more challenging when the market for watches remains subdued and the brands with deeper pockets are not holding back on marketing investments.
Industry figures are far from clear-cut with none of the groups detailing the performance of individual brands.
Richemont, which reported annual sales of specialist watchmakers up 7 percent in 2025, finally found a buyer for its forgotten child Baume et Mercier — announced earlier in January — and the figures may have been better without it. Also, the number doesn’t include Cartier’s watch sales — part of the group’s jewellery division, which was up a healthy 14 percent.
This points to an outperformance of Richemont brands compared to LVMH, which reported 3 percent growth from its watches and jewellery division for the year, although that includes jewellery sales — led by Tiffany and Bulgari. Sales of watches began to turn positive in the final quarter, the group said.
TAG Heuer continues to await a new CEO while, according to Morgan Stanley estimates, Hublot’s revenues have dropped around 250 million Swiss francs ($322 million), by roughly a third, since the pandemic boom.
At the same time, a spokesperson for TAG Heuer said the brand’s Formula 1 deal has boosted boutique footfall by 15 percent last year and sales of its Formula 1 collection by 20 percent.
At Swatch Group, net sales were down 1.3 percent, but net profits fell steeply last year — from 219 million Swiss francs in 2024 to 25 million in 2025 — but sales in the final quarter accelerated, roughly in line with FHS data. Nonetheless, the group, which relies heavily on Omega, one of the industry’s top watchmakers behind Rolex and Cartier, projects “very positive sales and volume developments for 2026.”
This likely means headaches at Tissot, Longines and the group’s high-end watchmakers may not yet have abated, although signs of life at Breguet and Blancpain towards the end of 2025 — including a big win for Breguet at the prestigious GPHG awards — may signal better times ahead.
Adding to the fog, four of the six largest Swiss watch companies are privately held and do not publish financial figures, although Audemars Piguet chief executive Ilaria Resta told journalists this week the brand’s revenues were up 10 percent last year (to roughly 2.6 billion Swiss francs, although she did not confirm this figure). Still, without official results, analysts say Rolex, Patek Philippe and Richard Mille — together with Audemars Piguet — are pulling ahead of the rest, likely further distorting FHS data. Brands further down the pecking order, meanwhile, continue to lose market share.
Tariff Strategies Muddy Export Figures
Only marginally less opaque are the breakdowns by FHS of Swiss watch exports. Export values for 2025 of 25.5 billion Swiss francs, down 4.5 percent on the record year of 2023, show a relatively small difference from an inflated year of revenge purchasing.
But how much is the tariff situation inflating results from 2025? Exports to the US were up 4.6 percent compared to 2023 as brands shipped box-loads of watches Stateside in a rush to beat incoming tariffs. However, the figures don’t show sell-through and it’s possible US retailer inventories are bursting, which could lead to slower exports to Switzerland’s largest market this year.
More obviously concerning are export volume figures, which dropped another 742,000 last year, almost 5 percent, bringing overall unit production down to near 2020 levels, when factories were closed for around two months because of Covid. While brands continue to raise prices to protect their margins and appease shareholders, volumes are vital to industry suppliers, the hidden makers of components found in almost every Swiss watch. Many are in dire straits, propped up by the Swiss government’s furlough scheme. The industry is bracing for closures, buy-outs and big brands continuing to pursue vertical integration.
Looking ahead, there are signs that the crises in the Chinese and Hong Kong markets, once the drivers of Swiss watch exports, are easing.
It’s unlikely either will rebound this year, but watchmakers will be glad to see the slump subside. At the same time, the industry’s focus is broadening as the UAE, India and Spain report meaningful growth. Saudi Arabia, as well, which was up 9 percent last year.
Has the storm passed? Not yet, but it has been downgraded. Perhaps further improvement will come by the end of the year, but few chief executives will be filling the fridge with champagne just yet.
Rolex Adds Much-Needed Credibility to LIV Golf
Rolex surprised the sporting world last week by announcing it had entered into a partnership with LIV Golf. LIV, the breakaway professional golf league funded by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, has been the thorn in the side of the golfing establishment since it launched three years ago, luring some of the game’s leading players away with exorbitant signing-on fees. Despite sky-high purses (the top 10 players all made more than $6.5 million in prize money last year — Spain’s John Rahm, who is also on Rolex’s books, collected $31.6 million), the rebel tour has not proved commercially successful, struggling to find broadcasters and sponsors with its shorter 54-hole (now 72-hole) format and uncompetitive fields.
In January, Brooks Koepka, one of its superstars, announced he was abandoning LIV a year before his contract expired and returning to the PGA Tour, golf’s leading tour and home to Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, the world’s numbers one and two ranked players. Ryder Cup player Patrick Reed followed last week.
Rats from a sinking ship? Some commentators had been forecasting that LIV’s time might be up, but Rolex’s endorsement will be seen as a huge vote of confidence in its future. There’s little escaping the deal will sting the PGA Tour, as well as the DP World Tour (formerly the European Tour), both backed by Rolex. Relations between the two established tours and LIV have thawed over the past 12 months, but the rancour and division from PIF’s moves into the sport are unlikely to be forgotten any time soon.
Rolex is golf’s most valuable sponsor and over the years has made a big play of its connections to the establishment. In a way, it is the establishment. To see it align with the most controversial actor in the modern game is unexpected. It may have secured LIV’s survival.
THMG Stops the Clock
The Honourable Merchants Group, the luxury group founded by former Audemars Piguet chief executive François-Henri Bennahmias and launched in September, was expected to announce its watchmaking division this first week of February. But a short statement issued last week by the nascent luxury conglomerate — which has so far introduced the high-end electric bike brand Viiala and the services company Avalon, as well as an incubator programme — said already-scheduled news of its watch brand acquisitions and launches has been put on ice.
Bennahmias said THMG’s focus had shifted to funding, while hinting that attempts to either buy out or invest in watch companies weren’t going according to plan. “Some stories are better told only once the ink has dried,” the statement said.
Bennahmias told me in November one of THMG’s brands would be new, and that he had a war chest of approaching $300 million. Either the padlock is proving harder to open than he expected, or he’s digging for more gold.
